Israel shifts goalposts in Gaza, but is victory in sight?

The Escalation of Conflict in Gaza

On August 7, the Israeli Security Cabinet approved a new war plan proposed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to occupy Gaza. This plan is built on five core principles: disarming Hamas, returning all hostages—both living and deceased—completely demilitarizing Gaza, ensuring full Israeli security control, and establishing a civil administration that is neither affiliated with Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.

Netanyahu emphasized that the goal is not to keep Gaza under Israeli control but to create a security perimeter and eventually hand over governance to Arab forces. However, this decision faced significant resistance from the Israeli Defence Forces Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, who warned that such an operation could endanger hostages and potentially lead to prolonged military rule in Gaza.

The Human Cost of War

The conflict has reached unprecedented levels of destruction. Over 61,000 civilians have been killed in Israeli strikes, with the actual number likely much higher. More than 2 million people have been displaced multiple times within Gaza. A severe food crisis has further exacerbated the suffering, a situation reluctantly acknowledged by the Israeli government.

What Makes 'Occupy Gaza' Different?

At first glance, the new plan appears to reinforce the current occupation and intensify military operations. This move significantly reduces the chances of an early ceasefire or an end to the war. From an Israeli perspective, it also puts the lives of remaining hostages at risk. Of the 251 hostages initially taken, only 50 remain in Hamas custody, with only 20 expected to be alive.

The plan involves expanding ground operations to fully take over Gaza City, including areas like the central camps, Deir al-Balah, and the Muwasi displacement camps. These are identified as key Hamas strongholds and potential locations where hostages may be held in tunnels or other hidden places.

The End of Operation Gideon's Chariots

Operation Gideon's Chariots, which had been ongoing for three months, has now been suspended. During this period, the number of civilian deaths in Gaza rose dramatically, increasing from 53,500 in April to more than 61,000 by the start of August—an increase of over 6,500. More than 1,500 of these deaths occurred at food collection points established by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a joint initiative between Israel and the US.

Despite its objectives, Operation Gideon's Chariots failed to achieve its goals. Hamas continues to inflict casualties on the IDF, with nearly 900 soldiers losing their lives in the war. Over 48 have died since the operation began. The IDF remains no closer to dismantling Hamas than it was in May, and hostages remain in Hamas custody. All attempts at securing a ceasefire have failed.

Has Israel Achieved Its Military Objectives?

When the war began in October 2023, Israel set three clear objectives: completely dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities, ensuring Gaza does not pose a future threat, and bringing back all hostages safely. In September 2024, a fourth objective was added—the "safe return" of northern settlers.

While Israel can claim success in achieving the fourth objective after defeating Hezbollah and eliminating its leadership, the primary objectives remain unmet. Despite heavy losses, Hamas remains active in Gaza. Estimates suggest that between 12,000 to 15,000 Hamas cadres have been eliminated, though the IDF claims the number is higher at around 23,000. However, thousands of new cadres have been recruited, and there is no viable alternative to Hamas in Gaza.

Is There an End State?

Israel’s insistence on a military solution aimed at completely annihilating Hamas raises serious questions. The new plan threatens the lives of thousands of people in densely populated areas of Gaza. Refusal to allow international aid agencies to distribute assistance and the failure of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation to deliver food have increased pressure, including from the US, Israel’s main ally. Additionally, countries like France, the UK, and Australia recognizing the State of Palestine are adding to this pressure.

Within Israel, the refusal to accept any end state unless Hamas is eliminated—despite the risks to remaining hostages—is causing widespread protests and opposition. Over a dozen retired senior officials, including former IDF chiefs of staff, intelligence leaders, and police commissioners, issued a joint statement calling for an end to the war. They argue that Israel has suffered more losses than gains, and the conflict has dragged on due to political reasons rather than strategic necessity. Families of hostages are also protesting, fearing for the safety of their loved ones.

The Future of the Conflict

Without a complete victory in Gaza, there is no clear scenario for a "day after," as admitted by many senior Israeli officials. The war is likely to continue, driven more by political interests than military logic. Meanwhile, the people of Gaza face another long and harrowing period of starvation, death, destruction, and displacement.