Coalition Meets in Paris to Halt Ukraine War

International Leaders Gather to Discuss Security and Peace in Ukraine

In a significant move, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy traveled to Denmark and France on September 3 to meet with leaders from 35 countries that make up the Coalition of the Willing (COW). The primary objective of this summit was to discuss strong measures aimed at pressuring Russia to negotiate an end to the war. The event brought together leaders from Europe, Australia, Japan, Canada, and the United States, including envoy Steve Witkoff.

The discussions centered around possible security guarantees and the number of peacekeepers that COW countries could commit to maintaining peace if a ceasefire is called. However, former U.S. President Donald Trump has been reluctant to commit troops and has remained vague about any military resources he might contribute to a mission in Ukraine. Russia, on the other hand, has flatly refused to accept NATO-backed boots on the ground in Ukraine under any circumstances.

Spearheaded by France and the United Kingdom, the COW leaders are hoping to persuade Trump to support their efforts. Earlier, during a meeting for EU foreign ministers in Copenhagen last week, delegates admitted that their efforts remain dependent on U.S. backing.

Calls for Military Aid and Sanctions

The leaders of the Nordic-Baltic Eight issued a joint statement urging more rapid provision of military aid to Ukraine and the strengthening of sanctions against Russia and its allies. They highlighted that Moscow is deliberately delaying peace talks while escalating its violent attacks, including strikes on Ukrainian civilians.

Despite the upbeat rhetoric and a strong show of solidarity by many international leaders, the Paris summit was seen as a failure in terms of genuine security guarantees. No major powers committed themselves to coming to Ukraine’s military aid should it be attacked a second time by Russia. There was also no firm commitment on supplying troops to a mooted peacekeeping mission in any sizable number, and the delegates remained divided over the issue. Vague promises of supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles were made, but no firm commitments were secured.

The Role of the United States

U.S. backing for anything the COW decides is key to the success of bringing the conflict to an end. However, while Kyiv intensifies its dialogue with partners in Paris, Trump continues to make meaningless statements but takes no action. Trump told journalists the day before that he is “closely monitoring” the situation and has learned 'interesting things' about Russia's war against Ukraine, promising to reveal them soon, but gave no details.

He also mentioned that Ukraine and Russia lost 7,313 soldiers over the past week and expressed his desire for the conflict to end. The U.S. president further noted that the U.S. will change its stance on Russia if there is no progress in resolving the war with Ukraine and expressed “disappointment” with Putin for not ceasing his aggression against Ukraine in a radio interview.

Security Guarantees and Peacekeepers

The success of a peace deal will turn on providing strong security guarantees. While Trump has taken Ukraine’s NATO membership off the table, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suggested in March a NATO-lite option of real bilateral agreements with European powers to provide military support in the event of a second invasion.

Similar security deals were agreed during the failed 2022 Istanbul peace deal but were later rejected by former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which caused the peace agreement to collapse. However, Meloni’s suggestion seems to have been dropped and replaced with a commitment to sending NATO-backed peacekeepers to Ukraine instead in lieu of a genuine security guarantee.

Missiles and Military Support

Another alternative, originally suggested by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy himself, is that Ukraine should supply its “own NATO” by beefing up the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to be able to hold Russia off. His is in effect the Finlandisation option: after a defeat by the Soviet Union in the Winter War, Finland went on to follow a strict neutrality policy and built up its military into a formidable force.

In Paris, the COW leaders said they are ready to supply Ukraine with more materiel and with long-range missiles in particular, according to a statement on the UK government's website released on September 4. The US also recently signed off on an $825 million deal to supply Ukraine with thousands of Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM) missiles that will be paid for by the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway.

Sanctions and Economic Pressure

Amongst the non-military measures on the table in Paris, the European allies discussed increasing the sanctions on Russia to force Putin to the negotiating table. The EU recently voted through an eighteenth sanctions package and are already working on a nineteenth. However, the sanctions regime has largely failed after Russia successfully rerouted its oil exports to Asia in just four months.

Russia has economic problems but they are largely a result of overheating caused by massive military spending and not the effect of sanctions. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) just released its Main Directions of the Single State Monetary Policy mid-term outlook report on September 3, which forecasts more economic pain for this year and next, but the Kremlin is still earning enough money to be able to continue the war for several years, based on its copious reserves.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges, the international community remains focused on finding a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. The role of the United States, the need for strong security guarantees, and the importance of continued military and economic support for Ukraine remain central to the ongoing discussions. As the situation evolves, the path to peace will depend on the collective efforts of all involved nations.