Will Trump's Deportation Plan Boost Democratic Turnout? Newsom Believes It

California Governor’s Bold Immigration Strategy

Governor Gavin Newsom has taken a different approach to immigration than many of his Democratic peers. While the party largely avoided or softened its stance on immigration after Donald Trump's 2016 victory, Newsom has leaned into the issue, especially as public opinion shifts against the president.

Newsom is not only pushing for a redistricting map that favors Democrats but also using immigration enforcement as a rallying point. He frequently highlights ICE raids conducted by masked agents in his speeches and advertisements, emphasizing the impact on long-term undocumented residents who have contributed to the state’s economy. This focus aims to transform border politics from a liability into a strength for Democrats, much like it did in California decades ago when Latino voters opposed an anti-immigration initiative.

The governor sees this moment as an opportunity to capitalize on frustration with Trump’s immigration policies, which target individuals who are not violent criminals. If successful, this strategy could influence how Democrats handle the issue nationally, especially in the midterms.

Juan Rodriguez, a senior campaign official, pointed out that the focus is not just on criminal immigrants but on racial discrimination. This has united the Democratic Party and made leaders more clear about the stakes involved.

This shift comes after Democrats faced losses in November, even in California, where over a quarter of the population is foreign-born. The party had previously supported stricter immigration policies and focused on the economy, with some House Democrats backing a Republican bill to expand detention offenses. However, Trump’s aggressive deportation campaigns in Southern California, including at workplaces and courthouses, forced Democrats to confront the issue head-on.

The intensity of these raids, particularly in major blue cities like Los Angeles, has made it impossible for Democrats to ignore the issue. Beatriz Lopez, a partner at Ascend Strategy Labs, believes that a presidential candidate should take advantage of this opportunity.

California has been a target for the Trump administration, leading to conflicts over climate policies, university funding, and vaccine access. However, nothing has alarmed Democrats more than the ICE raids and federal troop deployments in cities like Los Angeles, a key center for Latino political power.

The crackdown, which began in early June, led to a war of words between Newsom and the administration, culminating in a legal battle over the Los Angeles-area raids that reached the Supreme Court. It has also created powerful moments that Democrats use in their campaign to flip the House and support Trump’s agenda.

Newsom often mentions the time Customs and Border Patrol agents showed up at an August rally for the redistricting push. He warned that Trump was offering a "preview of things to come" by deploying a "masked private army." He repeated this message in recent interviews and during the signing of legislation to limit ICE's presence in schools.

Department of Homeland Security spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin stated that CPB regularly patrols "ALL areas of Los Angeles," adding that DHS is focused on enforcing the law, not on Newsom.

The campaign’s first ad warned about Trump “following the dictator’s playbook” with warrantless immigration arrests. Another ad featured Senator Alex Padilla recounting being manhandled by federal agents, which horrified Democrats across the country.

Opponents of the redistricting measure argue that the immigration focus will not resonate with voters. Hector Barajas, a spokesperson for the No campaign, claims that Californians, especially Latinos, see through the scheme and recognize it as a power grab.

Outside of California, Democratic groups are cautious about focusing on border security, with economic issues like rising prices being the main concern in battleground races. DCCC spokesman Viet Shelton noted that while immigration is part of Trump’s agenda, it is not the top issue for voters.

Polling shows that jobs and the economy remain the primary concerns for voters, including Latino men, who shifted significantly toward Trump in 2024. Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant, warned that focusing on deportations may not win back Latino voters, as the economy remains a priority.

However, there are signs that Trump has overplayed his hand. A series of polls show increasing disapproval of his immigration agenda and a loss of support among Latinos. A survey by the Latino Community Foundation found that most Latino voters in California believe Trump is breaking his promises by deporting nonviolent immigrants.

A backlash has energized key parts of Newsom’s coalition, including labor unions that have invested heavily in the campaign. SEIU California President David Huerta was arrested while protesting raids in Los Angeles, highlighting the growing resistance.

Labor leaders like Lorena Gonzalez say they are seeing a shift among working-class voters who are re-evaluating their stance on immigration. Proponents of the redistricting campaign believe focusing on Trump’s raids is an effective way to persuade voters, as it simplifies the message: "If you want to stop masked men going into elementary schools, vote for Prop 50."