Top 10 Rankings and Projections After Week 5

Big Ten Week 6 Recap and Rankings Analysis

Last weekend in the Big Ten, there were two highly anticipated ranked-vs-ranked matchups that went down to the wire—one going into overtime and the other ending in the final seconds. These games added clarity to the standings at the bottom of the conference as the lower-ranked teams faced off.

Polls and Rankings

The Big Ten currently has six teams ranked in both the Coaches Poll and the AP Poll. After their last-second loss at Illinois, USC dropped out of the rankings. Here is a breakdown of the Big Ten teams in the polls (AP/Coaches):

• Ohio State (1/1)
• Oregon (2/2) – Up 4 in the AP and 3 in the Coaches
• Penn State (7/6) – Down 4 in the AP and down 4 in the Coaches
• Indiana (8/9) – Up 3 in the AP and up 3 in the Coaches
• Michigan (20/20) – Down 1 in the AP and down 2 in the Coaches
• Illinois (22/22) – Up 1 in the AP and up 1 in the Coaches

Michigan’s drop is somewhat surprising since they didn’t play, but they swapped places with Missouri, which had a win over Massachusetts. The rest of the changes make sense based on last weekend's games.

In addition, four other teams are receiving votes in the polls:

• USC: #31 in both polls
• Maryland: #33 in the AP and #30 in the Coaches
• Washington: #37 in the Coaches
• Nebraska: #40 in the Coaches

Composite Rankings

The Massey Composite, which includes 68 different rankings (as of this article), shows some differences from the traditional polls. A "Cool Chart" illustrates the changes since the preseason.

Notable differences include Indiana, USC, Nebraska, and Washington being higher in the composite rankings compared to the official polls. Penn State and Maryland are lower in the composite, likely due to overreactions to their close losses. Meanwhile, Michigan and Michigan State saw slight rises even without playing, while Wisconsin dropped despite not playing as well.

UCLA remains at the bottom of the Big Ten in these rankings.

Other Rankings and Consistency

There are multiple rankings for all FBS teams. Comparing the Massey Composite with popular rankings reveals general agreement, though some variations exist. For example:

• UCLA has the greatest range, from #82 to #114.
• Penn State ranges from top-10 to #11, with the Massey Composite placing them at #23.
• Iowa and Maryland also show significant variation in rankings.

Four teams vary by less than 10 places, including the top three teams and Washington.

F+ Ratings

The F+ Ratings combine the FEI Rating and SP+ Rating, offering an overall rating along with separate ratings for offense, defense, and special teams.

• Seven Big Ten teams are in the top 25 overall.
• Washington dropped to #27 after falling out of the top 25.
• UCLA had the biggest overall drop, falling 10 places.
• Illinois made the biggest move up, climbing six spots.

Nine of the top 25 offenses are from the Big Ten, with Illinois moving into the top 25. Despite scoring only six points last weekend, Washington’s offense remains at #17. UCLA’s offense dropped the most, falling eight places.

The Big Ten has five of the top 10 defenses and eight of the top 25. Washington recently played the #1 defense and will face the #5 (Oregon) and #8 (Michigan) defenses this season.

Only Indiana and Penn State are in the top 25 in all three phases (offense, defense, special teams). Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue are not in the top 25 in any phase.

Offensive Success

Several offenses in the Big Ten performed among the best in college football last week, but many struggled against strong defenses:

• Washington: Dropped from #1 to #5 in Available Yards (from 84.5% to 69.5%).
• Oregon: Dropped from #2 to #3 in Available Yards (from 82.3% to 72.8%).
• Indiana: Dropped from #5 to #8 in Available Yards (from 75.6% to 66.5%).
• Penn State: Dropped from #5 to #11 in Drive Success (from 72.2% to 61.5%).

USC maintained offensive success despite its loss, but their next two games will be challenging as they face the #18 (Michigan) and #10 (Notre Dame) defenses.

Win Total Projections

ESPN’s FPI and Kelley Ford provide updated win total projections. There is little difference between the two, except for Washington, which has an extra 0.5 wins according to Kelley Ford. Oregon is projected to have 0.5 fewer wins than ESPN’s FPI. Kelley Ford also gives Washington a slightly better chance of beating Oregon in the final game (28% vs 20.1%).

Week 6 Games

All Big Ten games this week are conference matchups. Most games show consistency, except for the Washington-Maryland game, where projections differ. Three sources favor Washington, while SP+ has Maryland as the favorite. Maryland has improved significantly since last season, while Washington faces a long road trip and potential injuries.

According to FPI and Kelley Ford, Purdue, UCLA, and Wisconsin are underdogs in all remaining games. Ohio State and Oregon are favored in all their remaining matches.

Final Notes

Looking at how the projections have performed in the 65 Big Ten games so far:

• ESPN FPI has 82% accuracy, missing 12 games, mostly close ones.
• Massey has 86% accuracy, but some high-percentage favorites lost.
• Kelley Ford leads with 91% accuracy, missing only four games, all of which were close.
• SP+ also has 91% accuracy, with similar results to Kelley Ford.

Three games were missed by all four sites, including UCLA’s loss to New Mexico. Two of those games involved long road trips, which may affect Washington’s chances against Maryland.

There is little change in win projections for the rest of the season, with only two games showing over a 10-point shift. This indicates agreement on team rankings, but college football is known for surprises.

Washington has eight more conference games, including four against the bottom five teams and three against ranked opponents. A win against Maryland should keep them in the top half of the conference.