On the Brink: Unraveling the Tensions Between India and Pakistan

A major confrontation has broken out between India and Pakistan after a lethal terrorist strike targeted a contingent of travelers in the contested territory of Kashmir. These nuclear-powered countries have traded warnings of armed conflict, with initial skirmishes taking place at their common frontier.

Below, RBC-Ukraine outlines the situation between India and Pakistan and elucidates the role of the Kashmir region in this conflict.

What occurred between India and Pakistan?

On April 23rd, which was a Wednesday, militants attacked a gathering of tourists in the Indian-administered region of Kashmir with gunfire. This incident stands out as one of the most lethal attacks in recent times. Over two dozen individuals lost their lives during this event.

A lesser-known militant organization known as Kashmir Resistance has taken credit for the incident, stating their outrage about the residence of "non-locals" in the area and purported shifts in population demographics. In the last couple of years, approximately 84,000 individuals from outside Kashmir have allegedly received permission to live there. Additionally, this group made threatening statements online directed at anyone trying to “illegally settle” within the territory.

The Indian government accused Pakistani insurgents, who were allegedly acting with support from Islamabad, of being responsible for the attack. Pakistan refuted these claims, stating that it was merely an internal rebellion within India.

Image: Tensions escalated into conflict between India and Pakistan (Getty Images)

The following day, though, India took several actions against Pakistan: it shut down a key border crossing in the Kashmir area, revoked previously granted visas, limited the approval of new visa applications, and also expelled Pakistani diplomatic staff.

The dispute intensified after India opted out of the 60-year-old Indus Waters Treaty, an agreement that had guaranteed Pakistan’s use of water from key rivers such as the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

New Delhi suggested it might annul the 2021 cease-fire pact with Pakistan. The Indian Defense Minister cautioned that should assaults persist, the nation retains the prerogative to retaliate unilaterally.

As a result, Islamabad responded by closing its border crossing point in Kashmir, expelling Indian diplomatic staff, giving Indian nationals 48 hours to depart from Pakistan, and shutting down airspace access for all Indian carriers.

Moreover, Pakistan has delivered an ultimatum to India regarding water issues, essentially issuing a threat of war. The country’s military forces have been put on high alert.

Islamabad stated that any effort to stop or redirect the water flow that legally belongs to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty would be regarded as an act of war.

Today, April 25, witnessed heightened tensions with reports from Indian news channel News18 about an exchange of gunfire between Indian and Pakistani forces near the Line of Control in Kashmir.

What defines the Kashmir area and what has led to the disagreement between India and Pakistan regarding it?

Kashmir is a contested area located in northwest India that has been a source of tension between two nuclear-armed nations for over seven decades. Following their liberation from the British Empire in 1947, Kashmir turned into a point of contention. Presently, India oversees approximately 55% of this territory, Pakistan manages around 35%, with China controlling the remainder.

Image: India and Pakistan are in conflict over the region of Kashmir (Getty Images)

India and Pakistan have engaged in three conflicts, with two being centered around Kashmir. India views the area as an essential part of its domain, whereas Islamabad asserts that the region's Muslim inhabitants should either have the option for self-governance or be united with Pakistan.

In 2019, India abolished Kashmir's special autonomous status, leading to significant tension between India and Pakistan as well as causing large-scale demonstrations, intermittent military confrontations, and border skirmishes. These hostilities persisted up till 2021 when both capitals agreed upon a truce.

Is there a possibility of armed conflict breaking out between India and Pakistan?

India and Pakistan have already traded severe warnings of potential military actions. Since both countries hold nuclear weapons, any clash between them could potentially escalate into a nuclear conflict in the area.

Image: Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear arms (Getty Images)

Nonetheless, Natalia Butyrska, an authority on East Asian affairs with a Master's degree in foreign policy, thinks it unlikely that either side will resort to using nuclear weapons. In her statement for the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel, she mentioned that India's nuclear strategy explicitly prohibits initiating a nuclear attack.

"In my opinion, there will continue to be a system of specific deterrents and an awareness of potential repercussions between these nations. I hope this situation does not result in a significant confrontation, but rather leads to increased tensions that will ultimately subside, enabling both parties to revert to their earlier established state," stated Butyrska.

Nonetheless, a third party might join the scenario. China, whose ties with India are strained and which also asserts its own claims in Kashmir, could align with Pakistan. Furthermore, both countries have previously engaged in border conflicts.

The global atmosphere is tense due to Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine in Europe and the intensifying clash between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. A confrontation involving two nuclear-armed nations with a collective populace exceeding 1.5 billion might lead to an unparalleled crisis. Nevertheless, there is still good reason for optimism that the ongoing tension between New Delhi and Islamabad may culminate merely in a display of strength, similar to previous instances.

Historian and diplomat Roman Bezsmertnyi predicted in a commentary to the RBC-Ukraine's YouTube channel whether the world will stand aside from the conflict between India and Pakistan. Read more here.