World Watches Anew: Expert Weighs In on Odds of India-Pakistan Conflict

Following the deaths of numerous individuals in Kashmir, hostilities between India and Pakistan have escalated anew. This time around though, major international powers are expected to remain uninvolved. states historian and diplomat Roman Bezsmertnyi in remarks made for RBC-Ukraine's YouTube channel.

"The problem of tension in the region of Kashmir runs as deep as the historical relationship between these two nations (India and Pakistan – editor),” the specialist clarified. “Ever since 1947, this dispute has seen cycles of escalation and de-escalation, yet it has never ceased completely.”

Bezsmertnyi thinks that the present state of affairs between India and Pakistan hasn’t escalated beyond control and doesn’t necessarily point towards an inevitable all-out conflict. In his view, both parties have thus far traded harsh diplomatic remarks and implemented stringent actions, such as halting water deliveries.

The specialist points out that at the same time, both nations experience interdependence: each country controls portions of the shared water resources, fostering an element of mutual reliance within their dispute.

"In my opinion, further increases in visa restrictions and additional actions might only result in another series of periodic border confrontations occurring there," he commented.

Significant intensification of the circumstances

Meanwhile, the historian pointed out that this represents the most significant surge in tensions in Kashmir over the last forty years.

"One must point out that the situation worsened partly due to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strongly held Hindutva beliefs, coupled with the Bharatiya Janata Party adopting a more extreme position within the country. This raises concerns about potential open conflict. Such escalation might occur unless immediate actions are implemented," the expert clarified.

UN is 'paralyzed'

Bezsmertnyi asserts that current international security systems, notably the UN Security Council and General Assembly, have become largely ineffective. This paralysis is illustrated by how the global community views the deaths of 26 individuals in Kashmir merely as an expected facet of the enduring dispute between India and Pakistan.

"It's extremely harsh, yet that's how things stand. The immobilization of the security system renders intervention and calls for composure from all parties, along with conducting inquiries and penalizing those responsible, unfeasible. Consequently, the scenario unfolds in an escalating pattern, with every surge intensifying further. Therefore, I cannot definitively predict if this will culminate in a major conflict, as I observe people distancing themselves from the matter and acting as though it's merely a two-sided dispute," stressed the specialist.

Meanwhile, according to historians, should the conflict "occur" there, the repercussions would cascade throughout the entirety of Asia.

Is either the US or China showing interest in the conflict?

In response to a query regarding whether the US or China might want to intensify or back the conflict, the specialist stated that these nations presently do not possess such intentions.

“No, they aren’t interested because Trump’s United States has taken some steps back from being closely allied with Pakistan. In this scenario, India is still finding its footing and does not wish for China to be part of the equation,” the specialist clarified.

Bezsmertnyi believes this is another argument indicating that Islamabad and New Delhi have been left to handle the situation on their own.

"Since any action taken in Beijing, Washington, or perhaps Moscow could result in a misunderstanding of the situation at hand. In my opinion, everything now hinges on whether there is sufficient good judgment in Islamabad and New Delhi to ensure their choices de-escalate this conflict and avoid an outbreak of warfare," he ended his statement.

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Conflict between India and Pakistan

Recently, militants attacked tourists in the mountainous region of Indian-administered Kashmir, killing at least twenty-five people.

Ukraine reacted to this tragedy by condemning the violence. More details on the situation and Kyiv’s response can be found in the RBC-Ukraine material.

Yesterday, India declared its intention to pull out from the longstanding Indus Waters Treaty, whereas Pakistan reacted with warnings of conflict.

The RBC-Ukraine report encompasses all pertinent details regarding the intensification of tensions and reciprocal limitations between the two nations.

Significantly, on April 25, a gunfight took place at theIndia-Pakistanborder.