WSJ Dollar Index Climbs 0.3% to 96.34

This week, the WSJ Dollar Index has risen by 0.27 points or 0.28%, reaching a value of 96.34.

— Biggest weekly increase in points and percentages since the week ended March 21, 2025

—Breaks a three-week losing streak

— Today it has risen by 0.27 points or 0.28%

—Increased for three out of the last four trading days

— Down 8.38% from its peak closing of 105.14 reached on Tuesday, September 27, 2022

— Today’s closing value ranks as the seventh lowest for this year.

— Down 7.02% from its 52-week high of 103.61 reached on Friday, January 10, 2025

— Increased by 1.08% from its 52-week low of 95.31 reached on Friday, September 27, 2024.

—Decreased by 4.25% compared to this time last year

— Month-to-date, it has decreased by 3.43%.

— Year-to-date, it has decreased by 6.42 points or 6.25%.

Based on data from 5 p.m. ET valores

Tullett Prebon and Dow Jones Market Data

The Dollar's Increase Against the Japanese Yen Is Not Expected to Last

10:12 AM GMT — According to MUFG Bank’s Derek Halpenny, the upward trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen isn't likely to last due to the obstacles posed by trade tariffs affecting American economic expansion. He notes this in his report. This increase has been supported by reports indicating that during their discussions on Thursday, neither Japan's Financial Minister Katsunobu Kato nor US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed particular currency value goals. Nevertheless, a slowdown in US growth is inevitable. As a result, market instability will remain elevated, putting pressure on stock indices and making conditions globally unsupportive for further strengthening of the USD relative to the safe haven JPY. At present, the dollar index stands at 143.566, having previously reached a peak of 143.846 over one and a half weeks ago as reported by FactSet. renae.dyer@wsj.com )

The Canadian Dollar Might Drop If Retail Sales Come In Below Forecasts.

0941 GMT - Retail sales figures from Canada might be lower than anticipated, which could lead to a decline in the value of the Canadian dollar, as noted by analysts at Monex Europe. In February, when these numbers were recorded, there was also an increase in US-Canada trade conflicts along with the conclusion of a goods and services tax break; this suggests potential for a less favorable outcome, according to their analysis. Such a development may diminish the CAD's current robust performance, aligning more closely with expectations regarding challenges impacting the Canadian economic landscape. These statistics are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT and forecasters predict a drop of about 0.4% in sales during February based on a Wall Street Journal poll among experts. Meanwhile, the USD has strengthened slightly against the Canadian currency, now standing at 1.3889 CAD per USD. renae.dyer@wsj.com )

Swiss Franc Remains Lower Following Comments From SNB Chief About Interest Rates and Currency Interventions

0847 GMT - The Swiss franc remains lower following comments from Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel, who stated that the central bank may reduce interest rates further and employ currency intervention measures as needed. At an annual Ordinary General Meeting of shareholders for the SNB, he highlighted the significant uncertainties related to U.S. tariff policies and acknowledged the possibility of an economic downturn. "We must continually adapt to emerging circumstances and respond appropriately," he noted. Should current levels of interest rates and the value of the franc not align with maintaining long-term price stability, they will be adjusted accordingly. Nonetheless, targeting a particular exchange rate is not part of the SNB’s strategy. Against this backdrop, the euro gains 0.1%, trading at 0.9436 francs compared to around 0.9440 prior to his remarks. renae.dyer@wsj.com )

The Euro Might Decrease Even More If the U.S. Stock Market Rallies and Lifts the Dollar

0735 GMT - According to ING’s Chris Turner in his report, the euro might keep declining relative to the dollar should US stocks maintain their upward trajectory due to growing confidence about reduced trade frictions. There continues to be a strong connection between the value of the dollar and performance in the US stock market. Any slight increase in US share prices may push the euro down toward the $1.1250 mark, as stated by him. Nevertheless, persistent worries regarding whether the dollar will retain its position as a global reserve currency could bring forth renewed selling pressure from those who see long-term damage to the dollar's standing, Turner notes additionally. Currently, the euro has dipped 0.2%, trading at $1.1362. renae.dyer@wsj.com )

SNB Might Keep Option to Act Against Appreciation of Swiss Franc

0735 GMT - Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel might hint at potential future interest rate reductions and significant foreign exchange interventions during his speech scheduled for 0800 GMT, suggests ING analyst Chris Turner in a report. Nevertheless, the SNB remains hesitant about pushing interest rates deeper into negative territory when anticipated next month, due to constraints related to their ability to intervene through currency measures. If financial markets become more volatile over this quarter, causing an increased appetite among investors for safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc, the euro could drop rapidly down to around 0.92 francs per euro, Turner notes. Currently, data from FactSet indicates that the euro has gained 0.2%, reaching a level of 0.9448 francs—a peak not seen since late last week—partly because expectations surrounding possible US trade agreements have diminished concerns regarding capital safety. renae.dyer@wsj.com )

The Dollar Rises Amid Optimism Over Trade Agreements

0648 GMT - The dollar strengthens amid optimism over potential easing of tensions in the ongoing global trade conflict. "President Trump has moderated his stance on trade talk, indicating an inclination towards reaching agreements with key trading nations," notes Mohit Kumar from Jefferies. He suggests that President Trump might successfully negotiate pacts with countries such as India, the UK, Japan, and South Korea; however, securing deals with both the European Union and China may prove more challenging. According to him, policy uncertainties along with tariff measures will likely hinder US economic expansion. Consequently, the DXY Dollar Index climbs by 0.3%, standing at 99.6450. renae.dyer@wsj.com )

Sterling Moves Following U.K. Retail Sales Figures

06:24 GMT - The pound shows minimal movement following the release of better-than-expected UK retail sales figures. According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales increased by 0.4% from February to March. This result surpassed economists' predictions in a WSJ poll who anticipated a decline of 0.4%. Despite ongoing economic challenges, consumer expenditure has proven robust due largely to milder temperatures boosting apparel and other non-food items, notes Phil Monkhouse at Ebury. Nonetheless, uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies cast doubt on future prospects and might dampen the recent surge in consumer spending. Meanwhile, the euro drops slightly to trade at £0.8534 versus the pound, down marginally from £0.8535 prior to the report. Conversely, sterling decreases by 0.4%, trading at $1.3279 against an appreciating greenback, just shy of its previous rate of $1.3278. renae.dyer@wsj.com )