Educated and Unemployed: Unemployment Trends Among European Graduates

The Impact of University Degrees on Unemployment Rates in Europe

Across Europe, a university degree has traditionally been seen as a strong indicator of employment stability. However, the relationship between higher education and unemployment varies significantly from country to country. While most European nations show that university graduates have lower unemployment rates than the general population, one exception stands out: Turkey.

According to Eurostat data from 2024, university graduates in Turkey face a higher unemployment rate than the overall population. This is a unique situation among 33 European countries, including EU member states, candidate countries, and EFTA members. In other countries, having a university degree generally provides a significant advantage in the job market.

Unemployment Rates Across Europe

In 2024, the unemployment rate for people aged 15–74 across Europe ranged from 2.6% in Czechia to 11.4% in Spain. The EU average was 5.9%. Among the top countries with the highest overall unemployment rates were Greece (10.1%), Turkey (8.8%), Serbia (8.6%), and Finland and Sweden (both at 8.4%). At the bottom of the list were Czechia (2.6%), Poland (2.9%), Malta (3.1%), Germany (3.4%), Iceland (3.6%), and the Netherlands and Slovenia (both at 3.7%).

For university graduates—defined as those with tertiary education under the ISCED classification—the unemployment rate in 2024 ranged from 1.4% in Czechia and Poland to 9.2% in Turkey. The EU average stood at 3.8%. After Turkey, the highest unemployment rates among graduates were found in Greece (7.3%), Spain (6.9%), Serbia (6.5%), and France (5%).

Comparing Unemployment Gaps

When comparing the unemployment rates of the general population and university graduates, Turkey was the only country where graduates had a higher unemployment rate. The difference was -0.4 percentage points (pp). In contrast, Spain showed the largest gap, with a difference of 4.5 pp. The overall unemployment rate in Spain was 11.4%, while it was 6.9% for university graduates.

To better understand these differences, the ratio between the unemployment rate of the general population and that of university graduates can be useful. A ratio below 1 indicates that the unemployment rate is higher among graduates, while a ratio above 1 suggests that the general population faces higher unemployment. The EU average ratio was 1.55, meaning that the general population’s unemployment rate was 55% higher than that of graduates.

Turkey had a ratio of 0.96, the only country below 1. Other countries such as Cyprus (1.23), Switzerland (1.26), Germany (1.31), Denmark, the Netherlands, and Serbia (1.32) had ratios closer to 1, indicating smaller gaps between the two groups.

Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Hungary had the highest ratios, with values of 2.84, 2.65, 2.63, and 2.50 respectively. This means that in these countries, university graduates had significantly lower unemployment rates than the general population.

Historical Trends in Turkey

Over the past 21 years, from 2004 to 2024, Turkey was the only country where university graduates had higher unemployment rates than the general population. This occurred in 12 different years, starting in 2011. No other country recorded this trend even once during the same period.

In 2022, Turkey had the third-lowest share of tertiary graduates in Europe, with 20.6% of the population aged 25–74 holding a university degree. Despite this, the country experienced a significant increase in the number of students enrolled in higher education. In 2019, Turkey had the highest rate of university students relative to its population, with 95 students per 1,000 people—more than double the EU average of 38.

The expansion of higher education in Turkey has led to an oversupply of graduates, particularly in fields that do not align with labor market needs. According to the OECD, the rapid growth of universities has outpaced the availability of jobs requiring advanced degrees, leading to a decline in the value of a university degree.

Challenges in Turkey’s Education System

The OECD highlighted that the quality of tertiary education in Turkey has suffered due to the rapid expansion of the sector. This has resulted in a mismatch between the skills taught in universities and those demanded by employers. Additionally, Turkey has a relatively low share of graduates in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields, which are critical for economic development.

To address these issues, the OECD recommends focusing on improving the quality of education and ensuring that university programs are aligned with labor market needs. This shift could help reduce the unemployment gap and restore the value of a university degree in Turkey.