Islamists Plot Post-War Return Through Army Support

The Rise of Islamist Influence in Sudan's Post-War Scenario

In the aftermath of a prolonged conflict that has devastated Sudan, there are signs that the Islamist movement, which was ousted during the 2019 uprising, may be seeking a return to political power. According to some of its leading members, this could result in an extended period of army rule, with the potential for a political comeback following the war.

Ahmed Haroun, chairman of the former ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and one of four Sudanese wanted by the International Criminal Court, recently gave an interview where he expressed his belief that the army would remain involved in politics after the war. He suggested that elections could serve as a pathway back to power for his party and the broader Islamist movement connected to it.

The ongoing conflict between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has led to widespread ethnic violence, famine, and displacement. This crisis has drawn in foreign powers and has been labeled by the United Nations as the world's largest humanitarian emergency. While the RSF remains entrenched in areas like Darfur and parts of the south, the army has made significant advances in recent months, which some Islamist operatives believe they have contributed to.

Despite efforts by army leaders and former regime loyalists to downplay their connections, the resurgence of the Islamist movement is being closely watched. The NCP, rooted in Sudan's Islamist movement, once dominated during the 1990s when the country hosted Osama bin Laden. However, the movement has since shifted from hardline ideology to focusing on power and wealth accumulation.

The potential return of the Islamist movement could reverse the pro-democracy uprising that began in late 2018, complicating Sudan's relationships with regional players who are wary of Islamist influence. This includes tensions with the United Arab Emirates, which has taken a firm stance against political Islam.

Several Islamists and their allies have been appointed to the cabinet of Kamil Idris, the technocratic new prime minister named by the army. In response to inquiries, a representative for Sudan's army leadership stated that while some Islamist leaders may want to use the war to regain power, the army does not ally or coordinate with any political party and does not allow any party to interfere.

Army in Politics

Haroun, speaking from a hideaway in northern Sudan, outlined a vision for a hybrid governing structure where the army retains control until all threats are removed, while elections bring in civilians to run the government. He emphasized that the Western model is not practical in Sudan, suggesting the need for a unique approach given the country's fragile security and external influences.

A senior army officer indicated that a transitional period run exclusively by the army before elections "would not be brief." Haroun also proposed a referendum to choose which army officer would lead the country, despite facing charges of war crimes and genocide in Darfur, which he dismisses as politically motivated.

The revival of Islamist factions began before the outbreak of the war in April 2023, during a period when a transition towards civilian rule was faltering. These factions had deep roots in Sudan's ruling apparatus and the army during Bashir's three decades in power. When army commander General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan staged a coup two years after Bashir's overthrow, he drew on their support.

The RSF participated in the coup but was suspicious of the Islamists, leading to tensions that erupted into warfare. The RSF initially seized most of the capital, Khartoum, before the army began to reclaim ground, extending its control over eastern and central Sudan.

Fighters and Their Role

An NCP document shared with The News Pulse by a senior Islamist official highlights the role of Islamist networks in the fighting. The document claims that Islamist operatives contributed between 2,000 and 3,000 fighters to the army's war effort over the first year of the conflict. They also trained hundreds of thousands of ordinary civilians, with more than 70,000 joining operations, significantly bolstering the army's forces.

Military sources estimate that about 5,000 fighters directly linked to the NCP serve in special forces units that have made key gains for the army, particularly in Khartoum. Other Islamist-trained combatants are part of an elite unit belonging to the general intelligence service.

While army sources and Haroun deny any direct control over the army, Haroun acknowledged that it is "no secret" that they support the army in response to the commander-in-chief's call and to ensure their survival. Burhan has repeatedly stated he would not allow the outlawed NCP back to power, although he has enabled the return of Islamist civil servants to high-level roles.

Foreign Allies and Regional Tensions

The Sudanese Islamist movement has long provided military training, including through the reservist Popular Defence Force (PDF) under Bashir. During the war, semi-independent Islamist units have emerged, such as the al-Baraa Ibn Malik brigade, named after an early Islamic figure.

One of its leaders, Owais Ghanim, mentioned participating in crucial battles to break the siege on army bases in the capital earlier this year. He claimed that the brigade has access to light arms, artillery, and drones under army orders. While Ghanim denied accusations of extrajudicial killings, rights monitors have raised concerns.

Army leaders plan to integrate these groups into the army after the war to avoid repeating past mistakes with the RSF. Military sources suggest that senior Islamist figures have used ties with countries like Iran, Qatar, and Turkey to secure weapons for the army. Haroun neither confirmed nor denied these claims.

Any further alignment with these countries and the expanded influence of the Islamists within Sudan could strain relations with the United States and further antagonize the UAE, which has sought to roll back political Islam internationally. The army cut diplomatic ties with the UAE earlier this year, accusing it of being the RSF's biggest supporter, a charge the Gulf state denies.