Israel-Iran: Preparing for the Second Act of the 12-Day War

The Fragile Ceasefire Between Israel and Iran

The recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered by the United States after a 12-day conflict in late June, appears to be a temporary pause rather than a lasting resolution. Experts suggest that this truce has merely shifted the confrontation into a more covert phase, with both nations continuing their strategic operations behind the scenes.

Since the end of the war, there have been several gas explosions in Iran, although Iranian authorities have not directly attributed these incidents to Israel. One such explosion occurred in Qom, an Iranian city, on Monday, injuring seven people. According to reports, the fire department cited a gas leak as the cause, while the governor of Qom ruled out any involvement of “terrorist” activities.

Despite the lack of direct accusations, many analysts believe these explosions could be part of a broader “shadow war” between the two countries. This conflict, which may soon resurface in the open, is being closely monitored by Israeli, European, and American officials who all agree that both sides are preparing for a potential return to hostilities.

Preparations for a Possible Resumption of Conflict

During his recent visit to Washington, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly received a conditional green light from U.S. President Donald Trump to conduct further attacks on Iran. This development was highlighted by the Israeli daily Israel Hayom, which noted that the 12-day war was only the beginning of a longer conflict.

Avigdor Lieberman, an Israeli opposition lawmaker, has called for a shift in priorities, arguing that Iran is preparing for a retaliatory war that will be more complex than the previous strikes. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has also emphasized the need to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program, aiming to prevent the country from rebuilding its facilities in the short term.

Concerns Over Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities

Experts remain skeptical about the extent of damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear facilities. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi has stated that while the recent strikes caused significant damage, Iran still possesses the necessary infrastructure, expertise, and materials to restart enrichment activities within a few months.

Grossi has been declared persona non grata in Iran, where the regime suspects UN inspectors of passing information to the West. Senior Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani and Hossein Shariatmadari, have called for his arrest and even execution.

Uncertainty About the Impact of Recent Attacks

There is still uncertainty regarding the true impact of the U.S. bunker-busting bombs dropped on the Fordow nuclear facility. Experts from the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) have not yet provided precise data on the damage and are awaiting further information.

According to Israel Hayom, citing Israeli experts, a significant portion of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium may have survived the attacks. Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the head of the Israeli military, acknowledged that the list of targets prepared before the war was extensive, but the 12-day conflict did not achieve all objectives. He warned that Iran remains a threat to Israel’s existence.

Signs of Growing Tensions

Menashe Amir, a veteran Persian language broadcaster, believes that the war would have needed to continue for a few more days to fully destroy Iran’s nuclear system. He also predicts that the conflict will likely resume in the near future.

Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed, an Arab analyst, has suggested that the ceasefire should not be seen as the end of the conflict, but rather as an interlude between two phases. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has compared Iran’s nuclear program to cancer, stating that Israel’s mission is to eliminate it, even if it might return in the future.

European Concerns and Diplomatic Challenges

European countries are also growing concerned about the situation. Nicolas Lerner, head of the French foreign intelligence service (DGSE), has stated that while parts of Iran’s enrichment system were seriously damaged, there is no complete assessment of the overall impact. He noted that Iran’s industrial-scale program is now delayed by “many months,” but the threat remains.

Another European official has indicated that EU states may only restart nuclear negotiations with Iran after a thorough evaluation of the damage to its facilities. This information could significantly influence the direction of future talks.

Rebuilding Military Strength

Both sides are also engaging in rearmament efforts. In Washington, Netanyahu secured approval from Trump for advanced munitions and missile defense systems. Meanwhile, reports suggest that China delivered surface-to-air missile systems to Iran shortly after the ceasefire, though the Chinese embassy in Tel Aviv denied the claims.

Iran has also resumed talks with China to purchase J-10C fighter jets, paying for them in crude oil. These jets, which gained international attention during the Pakistan-India conflict in May, have been the subject of previous failed negotiations.

Indicators of Potential Escalation

Other signs of possible escalation include the mobilization of Israeli reservists, increased jet patrols over Lebanon, and attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen. Additionally, Iran is attempting to reactivate its regional militias, which had limited effectiveness against Israel during the June conflict.

As tensions continue to simmer, the region remains on edge, with the possibility of renewed conflict looming on the horizon.