What Drives Netanyahu's Choices

Understanding the Israeli Cabinet’s Decision on Gaza

The recent decision by Israel’s security cabinet to approve a plan for occupying Gaza City has sparked significant debate both within Israel and internationally. This move, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has raised questions about its implications for the region and the broader conflict with Hamas.

According to Yair Rosenberg, a colleague at The Atlantic, the Israeli cabinet approved a proposal that allows the prime minister to authorize an occupation of Gaza City, which is home to many civilians who have been sheltering there. This decision comes despite the fact that neither the Israeli security establishment nor the majority of the Israeli public supports such a move. The military currently controls about 75% of the Gaza Strip, but the plan to occupy Gaza City is seen as a step toward deeper involvement in the area.

Netanyahu’s approach seems to be a compromise between his hard-right coalition partners, who push for full occupation, and the military, which opposes it. The cabinet voted to allow the prime minister to approve a plan from the Israel Defense Forces, which could happen in a few weeks. However, the timeline and specifics of this plan remain unclear.

The Political Dynamics Behind Netanyahu’s Decision

One key factor behind Netanyahu’s decision is his need to maintain the support of his hard-right coalition partners. After being ousted from power for a year, Netanyahu returned to office in 2022 with a narrow coalition that received less than 50% of the vote. If he loses the support of these anti-Arab parties, they could force early elections, which most polls suggest Netanyahu would lose.

The goals of these hard-right parties include ethnically cleansing Gaza, annexing it, and repopulating it with Jewish settlements. These objectives are not supported by the majority of Israelis. However, Netanyahu is politically dependent on these groups for his survival, which has influenced his decision-making process.

Public and Military Opposition to Occupation

Significant majorities in Israel oppose the hard right’s vision of taking over Gaza. Polls consistently show strong opposition to annexing and settling Gaza, with around 70% of Israelis wanting to end the war through a hostage deal rather than continuing the current path. The Israeli security establishment also opposes the idea of occupying more of Gaza, viewing it as a trap that would drain resources and increase casualties.

Former defense minister Yoav Gallant publicly criticized Netanyahu for refusing to wind down the war, and was later fired. The IDF chief of staff, who was handpicked by Netanyahu, reportedly opposed the current Gaza-occupation proposal. Recently, 19 former leaders of Israel’s major security agencies released a video stating that the war needs to end, as it has crossed moral and strategic red lines.

The Role of Trump in Shifting the Balance

President Donald Trump has played a significant role in shaping the political landscape in Israel. His relationship with Netanyahu has given him considerable influence over the prime minister’s decisions. Trump has largely allowed Netanyahu to proceed with his policies in Gaza, even supporting the idea of relocating Gazans and building something new in their place.

This shift contrasts with the Biden administration, which had previously emphasized returning Gaza to Palestinian control. Trump’s actions have tilted the playing field toward more extreme outcomes. While he could change this by disavowing his plans, he has not done so.

Netanyahu’s Claims About Gaza

Netanyahu has stated that he wants to take control of Gaza but does not intend to keep it. He claims that after rooting out Hamas, he will turn the territory over to Palestinian governance that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority. However, this scenario is considered unrealistic, as no such coalition exists.

Netanyahu’s statements may be aimed at reassuring the international community, but his actions do not reflect a commitment to this plan. Outside pressure could change this, but currently, the pressure is coming primarily from the hard right within his government.

Conclusion

The situation in Gaza remains complex, with deep political and strategic tensions. The decisions made by the Israeli government, particularly under Netanyahu, continue to shape the future of the region. As the conflict evolves, the balance between political survival, military strategy, and public opinion will play a crucial role in determining the path forward.