Will Israel and Türkiye Head Toward Conflict?

Escalating Tensions Between Israel and Turkey

Relations between Israel and Turkey have deteriorated significantly, reaching a critical juncture that could lead to armed confrontation. This situation marks the most dangerous phase in their bilateral relationship in decades, with both nations openly acknowledging the possibility of military conflict. The tension initially stemmed from disputes over Gaza but has since evolved into a broader strategic competition that threatens to reshape the Middle East’s security landscape.

This deterioration is not just a matter of bilateral issues; it signals a shift in regional power dynamics that could impact U.S. interests, regional stability, and the broader struggle for influence in the Middle East. As Israel pursues what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls “The Greater Israel,” an expansive hegemonic project, and Turkey accelerates its military modernization and indigenous defense industry program, the stage is set for a potential confrontation that could redefine the region’s strategic framework.

Mutual Threat Perceptions

The threat perceptions on both sides have reached alarming levels. Israeli security experts now describe Turkey as a primary regional threat, a view formalized at the highest levels of Israeli strategic planning. In January, the Nagel Committee, an Israeli government-commissioned body, issued a report identifying Turkey as a “strategic threat” and urging Israel to prepare for a potential war with Ankara.

Israeli intelligence officials also highlight the growing alliance between Turkey and Qatar as a “strategic threat” to Israeli interests. Meanwhile, Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli suggested that after Iran, “Turkey should be next,” advocating for an international media campaign against it.

From the Turkish perspective, the threat assessment is equally stark. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has labeled Netanyahu as “the biggest threat” to the Middle East. Turkish officials describe Israel’s actions as posing a clear threat to international security, with the Turkish Foreign Ministry stating that Israel has become the foremost threat to the region through its attacks on territorial integrity and national unity.

Strategic Calculations and Regional Implications

The escalating rhetoric reflects deeper strategic calculations. Turkish officials place significant blame on Netanyahu’s leadership, viewing his policies as contentious and increasingly unaccountable. His domestic strategies to avoid internal accountability have driven regional conflicts, from Gaza to Lebanon to Syria. Netanyahu’s recent announcement of plans to “take control” of Gaza City and realize the “Greater Israel” project is seen by Ankara as an expansive and destabilizing agenda aimed at fragmenting neighboring states.

Netanyahu’s pursuit of a “1967 moment”—referencing Israel’s decisive victory in the Six-Day War—suggests an attempt to alter regional power balances through military force. Turkish officials see this as a direct threat to their national security, especially given Israel’s operations in Syria, where Turkish forces maintain a significant presence.

Conflict in Syria and Military Geography

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024 has transformed Syria into a potential site of direct Turkish-Israeli confrontation. With each nation adopting contrasting agendas for Syria’s future, the risk of miscalculation has increased dramatically. Despite several de-conflicting meetings and attempts by Turkish officials with their Israeli counterparts in Azerbaijan, no progress has been achieved in preventing potential clashes.

The military geography makes conflict almost inevitable. Turkish forces control a significant swath of northern Syria, while Israeli operations have intensified in the south and center. The two spheres of influence are converging dangerously. For Ankara to fully benefit from a new Syria, it is essential to achieve a stable, united, sovereign, terror-free, and prosperous state in Syria.

Regional Objectives and Deterrence Strategies

Israel views the emergence of a strong Syria with a majority representative government as a challenge to its regional hegemony. Its strategy revolves around ensuring that Syria remains a failed state with a weak government and a fragmented society. To this end, Israel has launched the most extensive aerial campaign in its history against the forces of the new Syria following the ousting of Assad.

Moreover, Israel has supported ethnic and sectarian minorities against the central government, encouraging them to seek autonomy and potentially fall under Israeli influence. Notably, some Druze and Kurdish leaders have called for the establishment of a so-called “David Corridor,” which would connect the southern region of Syria to the northeastern part of the country, home to the Kurdish PYD. This corridor would effectively extend Israel’s geographical influence from the occupied Golan Heights to eastern Syria and Iraq on the borders with Turkey, a scheme that Ankara perceives as a significant national security threat.

Structural Factors and Military Modernization

The structural factors driving this confrontation extend beyond individual leadership and Syria. Turkey’s emergence as a regional power with global ambitions conflicts fundamentally with Israel’s vision of achieving regional dominance over its neighbors by military force. As Iran’s influence appears to decline, both Turkey and Israel see an opportunity to fill the resulting power vacuum—a competition that may prove irreconcilable through diplomatic means alone.

Following the swift 12-day Israeli war with Iran, many Israeli officials and experts enjoyed a state of euphoria in which they openly stated that Turkey should be Israel’s next target. Israeli security and military thinkers are looking for a broader regional coalition against Ankara that includes Cyprus and Greece, among others.

Domestic Calls for Nuclear Capabilities

Perhaps most concerning is the emergence of domestic calls within Turkey for nuclear weapons capabilities as security concerns mount. The recent conflict involving Israel and Iran and the Western unrestricted support for Israel during the war in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran has led to growing domestic calls for Turkey to develop nuclear capabilities.

While such development would likely take significant time to materialize and face significant challenges, the mere consideration of nuclear options reflects the Turkish perception of Israel’s grave threat.

Conclusion

For the United States, the Turkey-Israel rivalry presents a particularly acute dilemma. Washington’s close relationships with both nations create competing obligations that may prove impossible to reconcile. American efforts to maintain strategic partnerships with both Ankara and Tel Aviv could become untenable if tensions escalate to actual conflict, forcing difficult choices about regional priorities and alliance commitments.

The current dynamics suggest that some form of strategic competition is likely to persist in the short and medium terms, regardless of immediate diplomatic efforts. The challenge for policymakers in Washington is to minimize the risk of escalation and prevent Israel from dragging the U.S. into yet another quagmire in the Middle East that most probably will not even be in Israel’s interests in the medium and long term. This will require the U.S. to go way beyond the mere words of wishes and requests and to seriously put pressure on Netanyahu to change his destabilizing policies completely. The question is whether President Trump possesses the wisdom and political will to act before it is too late.