2025-26 NBA MVP Race: Odds, Rankings, and Top Contenders Like Gilgeous-Alexander, Doncic, and Jokic

NBA Season Kickoff and MVP Predictions

The NBA season is just around the corner, and fans are already buzzing about the potential MVP candidates. With the Thunder opening the season by accepting rings, they will host Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets. Later that night, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and the Warriors will face Luka Doncic without LeBron James. The start of the season promises to be a historic one, so make sure to tune in!

Before we dive into the season, let's take a look at my top five MVP candidates for what will be a weekly feature here.

1. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers (+380)

MVP Finish in 2024-25: No Votes
Points Per Game: 28.2
Assists Per Game: 8.2
Rebounds Per Game: 7.7

I am excited for the Luka Doncic experience while LeBron James is sidelined. You've probably heard how Doncic is in the best shape of his life and seen him on social media or the cover of health magazines — it's not fake, it's real. Doncic averaged 28.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 7.7 assists over 28 regular season games with the Lakers last year, and I think he could do better than that in his first 28 this year.

Doncic averaged 30.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists in a 4-1 series loss to Minnesota. It didn't feel like it was Doncic's team last year when he arrived or finished the year, but this season sure does without LeBron starting it. Los Angeles wants to move forward with Doncic as the face of the franchise, and the NBA seems to be pivoting toward Doncic as the face of the league. Doncic is my pick for MVP and I think he should be the favorite.

2. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (+220)

MVP Finish in 2024-25: 2nd
Points Per Game: 29.6 (3rd)
Rebounds Per Game: 12.7 (3rd)
Assists Per Game: 10.2 (2nd)

Nikola Jokic averaged a triple-double last season and finished second with 29 first-place votes to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 71. The two were the only players with a win share higher than 12 and win shares per 48 minutes three times above the league average. It's hard to imagine Jokic having a better season than 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game, but I guess the only way up is to average a 30-plus point triple-double and a No. 1 seed.

Denver added Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas, so the Nuggets improved. Jokic is the favorite at DraftKings to start the year, but second in terms of odds behind SGA at other bookmakers. There is a strong case for Jokic to win his fourth MVP.

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (+275)

MVP Finish in 2024-25: 1st
Points Per Game: 32.7 PPG (1st)
Assists Per Game: 6.4 APG (14th)
Rebounds Per Game: 5.0 RPG (76th)

Winning the MVP back-to-back seasons is a hard task to accomplish, especially as a guard. Steph Curry (2015, 16) was the last guard to win back-to-back MVPs, while Steve Nash (2005, 06) was the only other guard since Michael Jordan (1991, 92). If SGA can join that company, well, then last year won't be comparable to Derrick Rose or James Harden's outlier MVP seasons.

To win MVP again, SGA will likely have to lead the league in points per game again (32.6 PPG), have one of the best records (68-14), and up his assists (6.4 APG, 14th). SGA recorded 51/37/89 shooting splits last year, nearing the 50-40-90 club, so reaching that goal is another potential resume builder at his disposal.

4. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+1200)

MVP Voting finish in 2024-25: No Votes
Points Per Game: 24.3
Rebounds Per Game: 11.0
Assists Per Game: 3.7

My favorite player of all-time is Derrick Rose, and when I was a senior in high school, and from my couch, I watched Rose win an MVP at 22-years-old. Fast forward almost 15 years later, and I think Rose has some competition from Victor Wembanyama (21-years-old) to become the new youngest MVP of all-time.

Wemby averaged 3.8 blocks per game up from his 3.6 as a rookie. Mark Eaton holds an NBA record 5.56 blocks per game from 1984-85, but I truly believe the third-year big man can challenge that. Wembanyama might be a better bet or vote for Defensive Player of the Year, but his impact is the definition of an MVP for this Spurs team.

If Wemby averages a 25-12-4-4-2 season and the Spurs win 50-plus games, who won't want to vote for him? Especially, if we see similar seasons from former winners, any voter fatigue from Jokic, or a lack of anything new or improved in SGA's game.

5. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (+2000)

MVP Finish in 2024-25: Tied 7th
Points Per Game: 27.6 (4th)
Assists Per Game: 4.5 (45th)
Rebounds Per Game: 5.7 (57th)

It was hard not to say Jaylen Brown (+10000) honestly, but Anthony Edwards will have a better chance and the odds reflect that. Plus, Edwards is coming off back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearance, so this season could be a make it or break it year for the Wolves core.

Edwards averaged a career-high 27.6 points per game, 39.5 three-point percentage, 20.4 field goal attempts, and a ridiculous 10.3 three-point attempts per game. If Edwards can maintain 10 triples, 20-plus field goal attempts and improve on 44/39/83 shootings splits, it will be hard not to have him in the top five for MVP — I think he can be one of five players to average 30 points per game this season (Edwards, Jokic, Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama).

My Betting Pick for MVP

Luka Doncic (+400), Victor Wembanyama (+1200)

To start the year, I normally play one or two guys in the MVP market, and this year was an easy choice for me. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Nikola Jokic will be most people's selections — I will go with two other generational talents.

Victor Wembanyama's (+1200) season was cut short last year to 46 games, but in those contests he averaged 24.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 3.8 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game. San Antonio might take a jump, and if they win 50-plus games, Wemby will be a top-three candidate for the Spurs turnaround.

Luka Doncic (+400) appears to be in the best shape of his professional career and with LeBron James sidelined to mid-November, the keys are being handed over as you read this. I think Doncic is in for a career year and will finish at least top four in MVP voting for the third time in his career.

Picks:

• Luka Doncic to win MVP (2 units)
• Victor Wembanyama to win MVP (0.5 unit)

How to Watch the NBA on NBC and Peacock

Peacock NBA Monday will stream up to three Monday night games each week throughout the regular season. Coast 2 Coast Tuesday presents doubleheaders on Tuesday nights throughout the regular season on NBC and Peacock. On most Tuesdays, an 8 p.m. ET game will be on NBC stations in the Eastern and Central time zones, and an 8 p.m. PT game on NBC stations in the Pacific and often Mountain time zones. Check local listings each week. Both games will stream live nationwide on Peacock. NBC Sports will launch Sunday Night Basketball across NBC and Peacock on Feb. 1, 2026. For a full schedule of the NBA on NBC and Peacock, click here.