Simulated World Series: Dodgers vs. Blue Jays in Toronto

The final teams competing in Major League Baseball are ready to battle for a championship and a spot in the annals of baseball history. The defending champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers, are seen as the favorites heading into the World Series, but the Toronto Blue Jays have a realistic chance to pull off an upset.

Which team will ultimately lift the Commissioner's Trophy? That is the question we aim to answer through USA TODAY Sports' annual Simulated World Series. Using the Dynasty League Baseball online simulation, USA TODAY Sports and DLB designer Mike Cieslinski pre-play each game to provide insights into the key matchups and strategies that fans can expect to see in the Fall Classic.

Although these games are played beforehand, there are still some unknowns when it comes to setting rosters and lineups. As a result, the outcomes may not always be precise (though sometimes they've been remarkably accurate), but the overall conclusions remain valid.

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Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 1 simulation

One of the biggest surprises leading up to the start of the 2025 World Series was the Blue Jays’ decision to start rookie Trey Yesavage over ace Kevin Gausman in Game 1. This move came as a shock to many observers.

Another significant decision for Toronto was whether injured shortstop Bo Bichette would be able to play after missing the first two rounds of the playoffs with a sprained knee. We decided to include Bichette on the roster, but only as a designated hitter. Fortunately for the simulated Jays, Bichette delivered in a big way with a two-out, three-run home run in the bottom of the sixth inning, helping to break the game open. (In real life, the Blue Jays did add Bichette to their World Series roster.)

BOX SCORE: Blue Jays 9, Dodgers 1

FULL PLAY-BY-PLAY: Bichette's big blast fuels Jays rout

Andres Gimenez added a bases-clearing double in the seventh inning, and Myles Straw hit a solo home run in the eighth to account for the rest of the scoring.

Meanwhile, Gausman performed well on the mound, limiting the powerful Dodgers offense to just one run and three hits in a complete game.

Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 2 simulation

So about that rookie starting pitcher with only six major league starts under his belt taking the mound in the World Series… Trey Yesavage was not up to the challenge in the Sim Series.

Struggling with nerves, Yesavage walked four of the first five batters he faced to start the game, and only recorded two outs before being pulled from the game. The damage: 5 runs, 2 hits, six walks in ⅔ of an inning. Ouch.

The Dodgers scored in each of the first four innings to build a 9-0 lead and cruised to a series-evening victory. Six Blue Jays pitchers ended up issuing a total of 14 walks in the game, making the outcome never in doubt.

BOX SCORE: Dodgers 12, Blue Jays 3

FULL PLAY-BY-PLAY: Dodgers tee off early on Blue Jays rookie

Freddie Freeman had the only extra-base hits of the game for L.A. – a solo home run in the third inning and an RBI double in the seventh. Meanwhile, Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto allowed three runs over seven innings and struck out 12 to get the win.

Two games. Two blowouts. And the two teams head to Dodger Stadium for Game 3 all tied up.

Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 1 projections, analysis

So what does our simulation tell us about what we can expect when the real Game 1 takes place?

• First of all, Yesavage will be under an intense spotlight. Will he be able to handle the pressure the way he's done so far in the playoffs? The first inning will tell us a lot about him. The Jays could regret not going with their ace, Gausman, as they look to set the tone for the series.
• The Jays will certainly welcome Bo Bichette's bat in the lineup. He hit a career-high .311 this season with 18 homers and 94 RBI. However, if Bichette is in the lineup as the designated hitter, that will mean George Springer has to play the outfield. In Dynasty League Baseball's defensive ratings, Springer grades out as a D in terms of his range in the outfield. That could make a difference with so many big bats in the Dodgers lineup.
• Although the Jays have been a good defensive team all season, they could be even better if they moved some infielders around. Ernie Clement has been starting at third base throughout the playoffs, but he's the best defensive shortstop on the roster (B+ range). In our Sim Series, that's where the Jays are playing him -- with Andres Gimenez (A range at second base, C+ at short) going back to second and Addison Barger (C) at third. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (C range at short/second, C+ at third) goes to the bench in a superutility role.
• Dodger starter Blake Snell needs to be sharp. He allowed four hits, five walks and three earned runs in 5⅓ innings in Sim Series Game 1 before L.A. went to its bullpen. They'll be missing an important reliever as left-hander Alex Vesia will miss at least the start of the series due to a personal family matter. (Vesia gave up Bichette's big home run in our Game 1.)

Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 2 projections

• Yamamoto vs. Gausman should be an excellent pitcher's duel. Gausman went the distance in Sim Series Game 1, while Yamamoto tossed seven effective innings in his Game 2 start. Both have been outstanding so far in the playoffs.
• Runs figure to be at a premium, although Bichette homered again in our Game 2, a solo shot off Yamamoto in the eighth inning. We're seeing why his bat is so important if the Blue Jays are going to try and slug it out with the Dodgers. L.A. had the second-highest scoring offense in the majors this season, while Toronto ranked fifth.
• Toronto's bullpen will be an interesting case study. The Dodgers have three dangerous left-handed hitters at the top of their lineup in Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. As the game progresses into the late innings, the Blue Jays will have lefty relievers Brendon Little, Mason Fluharty and Eric Lauer to counter them. We put all three on our Sim Series roster to give the Jays added flexibility if high-leverage innings arise earlier in the game.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Simulated World Series: What to expect when Dodgers, Blue Jays take the field in Toronto