SEC Championship Tiebreaker Scenarios: Can Oklahoma Rise After Alabama's Upset?

Editor's Note:
This story has been updated to reflect that Oklahoma was eliminated from the SEC championship following Georgia's win over Texas in Week 12. A previous version of this story was published before the Bulldogs-Longhorns game.

Oklahoma football entered Saturday night with its path to the postseason still intact. That path to the SEC championship game and College Football Playoff no longer exists following No. 5 Georgia (No. 5 in College Football Playoff rankings) win over No. 10 Texas (No. 10 in CFP rankings) at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia.

Playing in a virtual do-or-die situation, the No. 10-ranked Sooners (No. 11 in College Football Playoff rankings) had picked up a significant resume-booster for the SEC championship game and CFP earlier in the day with a 23-21 win over No. 4 Alabama (No. 4 CFP rankings) at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

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The Sooners' defense, which came up with three takeaways on the day, sealed the win for Brent Venables' squad with a turnover on downs that was caused by a broken-up pass from Peyton Bowen.

So, what does that mean for the Sooners' SEC championship hopes following their top-five win over the Crimson Tide? Here's what to know:

Key Implications for Oklahoma’s Postseason Prospects

• Elimination from the SEC Championship Game: With Georgia defeating Texas in Week 12, Oklahoma is now out of contention for the SEC championship. This means the team will not have the opportunity to play for the conference title, which is a major milestone for any college football program.

• Impact on College Football Playoff Chances: The loss of the SEC championship game also affects Oklahoma’s chances of making the College Football Playoff. While the Sooners remain in the playoff rankings, their position is now more precarious, as they must rely on other teams’ performances to secure a spot.

• Strong Defensive Performance: The defense played a critical role in the Sooners' victory over Alabama. Three turnovers were crucial in securing the win, showing that the team can compete against top-tier opponents when it matters most.

• Clutch Moments: The defense's ability to make key plays in high-pressure situations highlights the team's resilience. These moments could be pivotal in determining whether Oklahoma can still make a strong case for the playoff despite the setback.

• Future Outlook: While the immediate goal of the SEC championship is out of reach, the Sooners still have opportunities to prove themselves in other games. Their performance against Alabama demonstrated that they are capable of competing with the best teams in the country.

Can OU football make SEC championship game?

No. Despite its win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa, there is no longer a path for Oklahoma to play in the SEC championship game on Saturday, Dec. 6 in Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Sooners needed the Longhorns to beat the Bulldogs in Week 12 as the first leg of a lengthy parlay scenario to make the SEC title game, as they needed some significant help from other SEC teams on top of just winning out themselves.

Here's a look at one of the "simplest" ways Oklahoma could have made the SEC championship game, according to tiebreak scenarios from bballnothing.net:

• Win out: Oklahoma must first control what it can by winning out the remainder of its schedule vs. Missouri in Week 13 and LSU in Week 14. Otherwise, there will be no flight booked to Atlanta for the Sooners' first-ever SEC title game berth.
• Texas beats Georgia in Week 12: The Sooners need some help from their Red River rival in Week 12. Texas and Georgia are currently facing each other in Athens, and a loss would give Georgia a 6-2 conference record.
• Arkansas beats Texas in Week 13: Though Oklahoma's best path involves Texas beating Georgia, it also involves the Longhorns falling to Arkansas in Week 13, similarly ensuring the Longhorns can't do better than a 6-2 conference record.
• Ole Miss loses to one of Florida or Mississippi State: Oklahoma would need Ole Miss to lose one of its remaining SEC games, either to Florida in Week 12 or in the Egg Bowl in Week 14. That will give Ole Miss a 6-2 conference record but keep its win record high enough the Sooners can still claim opponents' conference win percentage.
• Missouri beats Mississippi State in Week 12 AND Arkansas in Week 13 but loses to Oklahoma: This could happen, but it's hard to predict at this moment, as Missouri is playing with its third starting quarterback of the season in true freshman Matt Zollers.
• Auburn beats Alabama in Week 14: The Iron Bowl is Alabama's final conference game, as the Crimson Tide face Mercer in Week 13. The game is being played in Jordan-Hare, which has served over time to be a tough place to play in the SEC.

Had that all happened, Oklahoma would have finished on top of a five-way tie for second place in the conference standings behind only Texas A&M, claiming a 6-2 record alongside Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas. The Sooners would have gotten in the SEC title game by way of having the highest win percentage of opponents' conference scheduling.

However, with wins by Texas A&M and Georgia on Nov. 15, at least two teams will be guaranteed to finish with a 7-1 record in SEC play this season. The best Oklahoma can finish is 6-2, with wins against Missouri and LSU to finish the season. Alabama isn't eliminated from the SEC title game either, but needs to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl to have any chance.

SEC football tiebreaker rules

Should there be a tie in the SEC standings that could impact the conference championship matchup, here's a look at the tiebreakers that would be used, according to the SEC:

1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
2. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
3. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
4. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
5. Capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams
6. Random draw of the tied teams

Oklahoma football schedule 2025

Here's a look at Oklahoma's schedule in 2025, including a look at the Sooners' remaining games:

Here's a look at Oklahoma's schedule and results this season, including available kickoff and TV channel information:

• Saturday, Aug. 30: Oklahoma 35, Illinois State 3
• Saturday, Sept. 6: Oklahoma 24, No. 15 Michigan 13
• Saturday, Sept. 13: Oklahoma 42, Temple 3
• Saturday, Sept. 20: Oklahoma 24, No. 22 Auburn 17 *
• Saturday, Sept. 27: BYE
• Saturday, Oct. 4: Oklahoma 44, Kent State 0
• Saturday, Oct. 11: Texas 23, Oklahoma 6
• Saturday, Oct. 18: Oklahoma 26, South Carolina 7
• Saturday, Oct. 25: Ole Miss 34, Oklahoma 26
• Saturday, Nov. 1: Oklahoma 33, No. 14 Tennessee 27
• Saturday, Nov. 8: BYE
• Saturday, Nov. 15: Oklahoma 23, No. 4 Alabama 21 *
• Saturday, Nov. 22: vs. No. 24 Missouri * | 11 a.m. CT | ABC or ESPN (Fubo)
• Saturday, Nov. 29: vs. LSU *

* Denotes SEC game

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: SEC tiebreaker scenarios: Can Oklahoma make championship after Alabama upset?