Trump's Deals, Russia and China's Opportunity to Undermine U.S. Alliances

U.S. Alliances Under Pressure as Adversaries Exploit Trump's Deal-Making

U.S. adversaries are capitalizing on President Donald Trump’s inclination to pursue quick deals, using it as an opportunity to strain the relationships between the United States and its allies while challenging the long-standing security order that has kept them in check.

In Europe, Russia is attempting to leverage Trump’s desire to end the war in Ukraine and secure business agreements with Moscow by influencing a peace plan that aligns with its strategic goals. This includes gaining control over parts of Ukrainian territory and preventing Kyiv from joining NATO. Analysts suggest that this approach reflects a broader strategy by Moscow to weaken U.S. influence in the region.

In Asia, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is reportedly trying to convince Trump to abandon Taiwan in exchange for a significant U.S.-China trade deal, a priority for the former president. China asserts sovereignty over the self-governed island and has not ruled out the use of force if necessary.

Trump recently advised Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a close ally, not to provoke Beijing over the Taiwan issue, according to The Wall Street Journal. However, Takaichi’s office denied that such a remark was made. A leaked conversation between White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and a senior Russian official highlighted how the Trump administration has opened the door to dealmaking.

“The president will give me a lot of space and discretion to get to the deal,” Witkoff told Yuri Ushakov, a top aide to President Vladimir Putin, about a potential Ukraine peace deal, according to a transcript published by Bloomberg News. This suggests that both Moscow and Beijing see an opportunity in Trump’s focus on short-term bargains to advance their long-held objectives.

Fraying U.S. Alliances

The U.S. alliances are showing signs of strain as a result of these developments. European governments and supporters of Kyiv in Congress were surprised by a 28-point peace plan for Ukraine that appeared to reflect many of Russia’s objectives. The plan, developed by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with input from Kremlin confidante Kirill Dmitriev, called for Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Donbas region, which Russia has not been able to take despite nearly four years of conflict.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul criticized the plan, stating, “An aggressor like Russia must not be rewarded for its aggression. Otherwise, it will spread.” He also warned that even if the fighting were to stop now, an aggressive Russia would continue to expand its ambitions beyond Ukraine.

While Trump spoke positively about NATO this summer after allies agreed to double military spending, Europeans have grown concerned about his actions since then, particularly his Alaska summit with Putin in August. They believe this undermines the deterrence and cohesion of the alliance that the U.S. created in 1949.

European national security advisers met with Ukrainian officials and members of the Trump administration in Geneva to reshape the peace plan. Afterward, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the talks productive, and the resulting 19-point plan appeared more acceptable to Ukraine.

Despite these efforts, the latest developments in the peace talks have deepened European fears that the Trump administration sees its interests diverging from those of the alliance. Fabrice Pothier, a former NATO director of policy planning, noted, “I think it’s one more episode in that painful series of kind of American disengagements—not ground disengagement but I would say heart-and-mind disengagement from Europe.”

Asian Allies Question U.S. Commitment

Meanwhile, U.S. allies in Asia are questioning the commitment of U.S. forces to the defense of Taiwan and the wider region, where China’s economic power is matched by growing assertiveness in pushing territorial claims and expanding its military reach.

Only weeks ago, Trump praised new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as one of Japan’s greatest leaders aboard the aircraft carrier USS George Washington at an American naval base in Japan. On Tuesday, however, Trump called Takaichi and advised her to temper her comments around the Taiwan issue, according to The Wall Street Journal, as he does not want friction over Taiwan to jeopardize a detente with Xi.

Takaichi’s remarks earlier this month sparked outrage from China, leading to a campaign of economic and diplomatic protests. Despite this, Tokyo has yet to receive any public support from the White House.

Chinese experts believe that the call between Trump and Xi, along with Trump’s subsequent call with Takaichi, signals Trump’s desire to maintain momentum in U.S.-China relations and keep the chance of a trade deal alive. Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University, said, “He doesn’t want the Taiwan issue to become a problem for China-U.S. relations.”